Sickness absence and disability pension after road traffic accidents, a nationwide register-based study comparing different road user groups with matched references.

Background: Being injured in a road traffic accident may affect individuals' functional ability and in turn lead to sickness absence (SA) and disability pension (DP). Knowledge regarding long-term consequences in terms of SA and DP following a road traffic accident is lacking, especially comparing different groups of road users and compared to the general population. The aim was to estimate excess diagnosis-specific SA and DP among individuals of different road user groups injured in a road traffic accident compared to matched references without such injury. Methods: A nationwide register-based study, including all working individuals aged 20-59 years and living in Sweden who in 2015 had in- or specialized outpatient healthcare after a new traffic-related injury (n = 20 177) and population-based matched references (matched on: sex, age, level of education, country of birth, living in cities) without any traffic-related injury during 2014-2015 (n = 100 885). Diagnosis-specific (injury and other diagnoses) SA and DP were assessed during 5 years: 1 year before and 4 years following the accident. Mean SA and DP net days/year for each road user group and mean differences of (excess) SA and DP net days/year compared with their matched references were calculated with independent t-tests with bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: A third of all injured road users were bicyclists, 31% were car occupants, 16% were pedestrians (including fall accidents), and 19% were other and unspecified accidents. Pedestrians and other road users were the groups with the highest mean number of SA days during the first year following the accident (51 and 49 days/year respectively). The matched references had between 8 and 13 SA days/year throughout the study period. The excess SA days/year were elevated for all road user groups all five studied years. Excess SA due to injury diagnoses was 15-35 days/year during the first year following the accident. Excess SA due to diagnoses other than injuries were about eight days/year during the whole study period for pedestrians and car occupants and about zero for the bicyclists. The excess DP was low, although it increased every year after the accident for pedestrians and car occupants; for bicyclists no excess DP was seen. Conclusion: Higher levels of SA due to injury diagnoses were seen among all road user groups during the first year after the accident compared to their references. Pedestrians and car occupants had more excess SA due to other diagnoses and more excess DP four years after the accident than bicyclists and other road users.

Bidirectional associations between workplace bullying and sickness absence due to common mental disorders - a propensity-score matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The link between workplace bullying and poor mental health is well-known. However, little is known about the prospective and potentially reciprocal association between workplace bullying and mental health-related sickness absence. This 2-year prospective study examined bidirectional associations between exposure to workplace bullying and sickness absence due to common mental disorders (SA-CMD) while controlling for confounding factors from both work and private life. METHODS: The study was based on propensity score-matched samples (N = 3216 and N = 552) from the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health, using surveys from years 2012, 2014 and 2016. Self-reported exposure to workplace bullying was linked to registry-based information regarding medically certified SA-CMD (≥ 14 consecutive days). The associations were examined by means of Cox proportional hazards regression and via conditional logistic regression analysis. Hazard ratios and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated. RESULTS: Exposure to workplace bullying was associated with an increased risk of incident SA-CMD (HR: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.0-1.8), after accounting for the influence of job demands, decision authority, previous SA-CMD, as well as other sociodemographic covariates. However, we found no statistically significant association between SA-CMD and subsequent workplace bullying (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.7-1.9). CONCLUSIONS: The results support an association between self-reported workplace bullying and SA-CMD, independent of other sociodemographic factors and workplace stressors. Preventing workplace bullying could alleviate a share of the individual and societal burden caused by SA globally.

Sequence analysis of sickness absence and disability pension days in 2012-2018 among privately employed white-collar workers in Sweden: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study is to explore sequences of sickness absence (SA) and disability pension (DP) days from 2012 to 2018 among privately employed white-collar workers. DESIGN: A 7-year prospective cohort study using microdata from nationwide registers. SETTING: Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: All 1 283 516 privately employed white-collar workers in Sweden in 2012 aged 18-67. METHODS: Sequence analysis was used to describe clusters of individuals who followed similar development of SA and DP net days/year, and multinomial logistic regression to analyse associations between sociodemographic variables and belonging to each observed cluster of sequences. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were adjusted for baseline sociodemographics. RESULTS: We identified five clusters of SA and DP sequences: (1) 'low or no SA or DP' (88.7% of the population), (2) 'SA due to other than mental diagnosis' (5.2%), (3) 'SA due to mental diagnosis' (3.4%), (4) 'not eligible for SA or DP' (1.4%) and (5) 'DP' (1.2%). Men, highly educated, born outside Sweden and high-income earners were more likely to belong to the first and the fourth cluster (ORs 1.13-4.49). The second, third and fifth clusters consisted mainly of women, low educated and low-income (ORs 1.22-8.90). There were only small differences between branches of industry in adjusted analyses, and many were not significant. CONCLUSION: In general, only a few privately employed white-collar workers had SA and even fewer had DP during the 7-year follow-up. The risk of belonging to a cluster characterised by SA or DP varied by sex, levels of education and income, and other sociodemographic factors.

Fall and collision related injuries among pedestrians, sickness absence and associations with accident type and occupation.

OBJECTIVES: This study explores pedestrian fall accidents and collisions with other road users in the Swedish road transport system, and sickness absence (SA) in relation to accident type, injury, and occupation. Further, it studies the associations between accident type, occupation, and duration of SA. METHODS: Data from several national registers were used that included 15,359 working age pedestrians (20-64 years) receiving healthcare after a fall or collision throughout 2014-2016. Individual characteristics, accident type, injury, and occupation were presented and related to SA. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR), with 95% confidence intervals, for associations between accident type, occupation, and SA duration. RESULTS: About 11,000 pedestrians (72%) were involved in fall accidents in the road traffic environment and well over 4,000 in collisions with another road user; 22% of all injured pedestrians had a new SA. The population had a higher proportion of women and individuals in older age groups (≥45). Of the falls, 31% were due to snow or ice, and these were associated with a higher OR for both short SA (<90 days) 1.76 (95% CI 1.56-1.98) and long SA (≥90 days) 1.81 (95% CI 1.51-2.18), compared to the group slipping, tripping, and stumbling. The working sectors health & social care, and construction had the highest ORs for SA. A higher OR was found for health & social care, short SA 1.58 (95% CI 1.38-1.81), long SA 1.79 (95% CI 1.45-2.20) and for construction, short SA 1.56 (95% CI 1.24-1.96), long SA 1.75 (95% CI 1.26-2.44), compared to the sector finance, communication, & cultural service. CONCLUSIONS: The OR for having short and long SA was higher in falls due to snow or ice and differed between occupational sectors. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: This information contributes to the knowledge base for planning a safe road transport system for pedestrians.

Emotional demands and all-cause and diagnosis-specific long-term sickness absence: a prospective cohort study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: High emotional demands at work require sustained emotional effort and are associated with adverse health outcomes. We tested whether individuals in occupations with high emotional demands, compared with low demands, had a higher future risk of all-cause long-term sickness absence (LTSA). We further explored whether the risk of LTSA associated with high emotional demands differed by LTSA diagnoses. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, nationwide cohort study on the association between emotional demands and LTSA (>30 days) in the workforce in Sweden (n = 3 905 685) during a 7-year follow-up. Using Cox regression, we analyzed sex-stratified risks of all-cause and diagnosis-specific LTSA due to common mental disorders (CMD), musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) and all other diagnoses. Multivariable adjusted models included age, birth country, education, living area, family situation and physical work demands. RESULTS: Working in emotionally demanding occupations was associated with a higher risk of all-cause LTSA in women [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.88-1.96] and men (HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.21-1.25). In women, the higher risk was similar for LTSA due to CMD, MSD and all other diagnoses (HR of 1.82, 1.92 and 1.93, respectively). In men, risk of LTSA due to CMD was pronounced (HR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.92-2.11), whereas risk of LTSA due to MSD and all other diagnoses was only slightly elevated (HR of 1.13, both outcomes). CONCLUSIONS: Workers in occupations with high emotional demands had a higher risk of all-cause LTSA. In women, risk of all-cause and diagnosis-specific LTSA were similar. In men, the risk was more pronounced for LTSA due to CMD.

Diagnosis-specific sickness absence among injured working-aged pedestrians: a sequence analysis.

BACKGROUND: The knowledge about the long-term consequences in terms of sickness absence (SA) among pedestrians injured in a traffic-related accident, including falls, is scarce. Therefore, the aim was to explore diagnosis-specific patterns of SA during a four-year period and their association with different sociodemographic and occupational factors among all individuals of working ages who were injured as a pedestrian. METHODS: A nationwide register-based study, including all individuals aged 20-59 and living in Sweden, who in 2014-2016 had in- or specialized outpatient healthcare after a new traffic-related accident as a pedestrian. Diagnosis-specific SA (> 14 days) was assessed weekly from one year before the accident up until three years after the accident. Sequence analysis was used to identify patterns (sequences) of SA, and cluster analysis to form clusters of individuals with similar sequences. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for association of the different factors and cluster memberships were estimated by multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 11,432 pedestrians received healthcare due to a traffic-related accident. Eight clusters of SA patterns were identified. The largest cluster was characterized by no SA, three clusters had different SA patterns due to injury diagnoses (immediate, episodic, and later). One cluster had SA both due to injury and other diagnoses. Two clusters had SA due to other diagnoses (short-term and long-term) and one cluster mainly consisted of individuals with disability pension (DP). Compared to the cluster "No SA", all other clusters were associated with older age, no university education, having been hospitalized, and working in health and social care. The clusters "Immediate SA", "Episodic SA" and "Both SA due to injury and other diagnoses" were also associated with higher odds of pedestrians who sustained a fracture. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide study of the working-aged pedestrians observed diverging patterns of SA after their accident. The largest cluster of pedestrians had no SA, and the other seven clusters had different patterns of SA in terms of diagnosis (injury and other diagnoses) and timing of SA. Differences were found between all clusters regarding sociodemographic and occupational factors. This information can contribute to the understanding of long-term consequences of road traffic accidents.

Working life sequences over the life course among 9269 women and men in Sweden; a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate working life courses in women and men and possible associations with socioeconomic, health-, and work-related factors. METHODS: A 15-year prospective cohort study of individuals aged 18-50 in paid work at baseline and answering the Swedish Living Conditions Surveys (2000-2003, N = 9269) and their annual economic activity, using nationwide registers. We used sequence and cluster analyses to identify and group similar working life sequences. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine associations of sex, socioeconomic, health-, and work-related factors with sequence cluster memberships. RESULTS: We identified 1284 working life sequences, of which 65% represented continuous active (in paid work/studying) states. We then identified five sequence clusters, the largest one with individuals who were continuously active (n = 6034, 65% of the participants; 54% of women and 76% of men) and smaller ones with interruptions of the active state by long-term parental-leave, unemployment, and/or sickness absence/disability pension (SA/DP), or retirement. Women were more likely than men to belong to the "Parental-leave periods" (odds ratio [OR]: 33.2; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 25.6, 43.1) and the "SA/DP periods" sequence clusters (OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.4, 2.1), also after adjustment for covariates. In both sexes, low education and poor health were the strongest predictors of belonging to the sequence cluster "Unemployment & SA/DP periods". Predictors of the "Parental-leave periods" sequence cluster differed between women and men. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of individuals in paid work at baseline, the majority of women and men worked most of each year although women were more likely to have some interruptions characterized by long-term parental-leave or SA/DP periods than men, independently of socioeconomic, health-, and work-related factors.

Trends in Associations Between Sickness Absence Before the Age of 65 and Being in Paid Work After the Age of 65: Prospective Study of Three Total Population Cohorts.

The increasing workforce participation at higher ages may impact social insurance systems, however, this has hardly been studied at all. We studied associations between sociodemographic factors and prior sickness absence and disability pension, with having paid work and sickness absence after age 65, and if such associations changed over time. We used longitudinal register data regarding three cohorts of all residents in Sweden who turned 65 in 2000, 2005, or 2010 (N = 50,000, 68,000, and 99,000, respectively). Although employment rates when aged 66-71 increased between the cohorts, associations of sociodemographic factors with paid work and sickness absence, when aged 66-71 did not. Both sickness absence and disability pension when aged 60-64 were negatively associated with working past 65. Sickness absence when aged 60-64 was positively associated and disability pension was negatively associated with sickness absence after 65. Possibilities to remain in paid work with different health conditions need to be strengthened to avoid inequalities when raising the retirement age.

Paid work increased from 2000 to 2010, sickness absence increased marginallyAssociations of sociodemographic factors with paid work did not change over timePrior sickness absence and disability pension correlate with paid work after age 65Sickness absence before age 65 correlates with sickness absence after 65Disability pension before age 65 correlates with less sickness absence after 65.

Exposure to work-related violence and/or threats of violence as a predictor of certified sickness absence due to mental disorders: a prospective cohort study of 16,339 Swedish men and women in paid work.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this prospective cohort study was to investigate if exposure to work-related violence and/or threats of violence predict certified sickness absence due to mental disorders. METHODS: Information on work-related exposure to violence and/or threats of violence were derived from the biannual Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH) study 2012-2016, including individuals in paid work across Sweden and from different occupations/sectors (n = 16,339). Certified sickness absence due to mental disorders were ascertained from register data from the Swedish Social Insurance Agency. Odds ratios of certified sickness absence due to mental disorders according to exposure to work-related violence were estimated using multiple logistic regression. Several potential confounding variables, such as demographic and socio-economic factors, age, sex, cohabitation, children living at home, socio-economic status, educational level, as well as other types of psychosocial work environmental factors, were adjusted for in the analyses. RESULTS: In the total study sample, 9% reported exposure to violence and/or threats of violence and the prevalence of sickness absence due to mental disorders was 5%. Exposure to work-related violence and/or threats of violence was associated prospectively with certified sickness absence due to mental disorders (odds ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.82, p < 0.01). Analysis of possible interaction showed no difference in association when comparing women to men and different age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to work-related violence and/or threats of violence appear to increase the odds of certified sickness absence due to mental disorders. Preventive measures aiming to lower the risk of exposure is thus of great importance.

Trajectories of sickness absence and disability pension days among 189,321 white-collar workers in the trade and retail industry; a 7-year longitudinal Swedish cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: 1) identify different trajectories of annual mean number of sickness absence (SA) and disability pension (DP) days among privately employed white-collar workers in the trade and retail industries and 2) investigate if sociodemographic and work-related characteristics were associated with trajectory membership. METHODS: A longitudinal population-based cohort register study of all white-collar workers in the trade and retail industry in 2012 in Sweden (N = 189,321), with SA and DP data for 2010-2016. Group-based trajectory analysis was used to identify groups of individuals who followed similar trajectories of SA/DP days. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine associations between sociodemographic and work-related factors and trajectory membership. RESULTS: We identified four trajectories of SA/DP days. Most individuals (73%) belonged to the trajectory with 0 days during all seven years, followed by a trajectory of few days each year (24%). Very small minorities belonged to a trajectory with increasing SA/DP days (1%) or to constantly high SA/DP (2%). Men had a lower risk of belonging to any of the three trajectories with SA/DP than women (OR Low SA/DP 0.42, 95% CI 0.41-0.44; Increasing SA/DP 0.34, 0.30-0.38; High SA/DP 0.33, 0.29-0.37). Individuals in occupations with low job control had a higher risk of belonging to the trajectory High SA/DP (OR low demands/low control 1.51; 95% CI 1.25-1.83; medium demands/low control 1.47, 1.21-1.78; high demands/low control 1.35, 1.13-1.61). CONCLUSION: Most white-collar belonged to trajectories with no or low SA/DP. Level of job control was more strongly associated with trajectory memberships than level of job demands.

Sickness Absence and Disability Pension in the Trade and Retail Industry: A Prospective Cohort Study of 192,000 White-Collar Workers in Sweden.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate future sickness absence (SA) and disability pension (DP) among privately employed white-collar employees in the trade and retail industry. METHODS: A prospective population-based cohort study of all 192,077 such workers in Sweden in 2012, using linked microdata from nationwide registers, was conducted. Descriptive statistics of annual SA/DP during 2010 to 2016 and logistic regression for SA/DP in 2016 were used. RESULTS: Women had more mean SA/DP net days/person; however, there were no sex differences in the mean number of net days/person with SA/DP. The mean number of net days/person increased, especially with mental diagnoses. Sickness absence in 2012 was the strongest factor associated with SA/DP in 2016 (women: odds ratio, 3.28; 95% confidence interval, 3.09-3.47; men: odds ratio, 4.10; 95% confidence interval, 3.76-4.48). Work-related factors were weakly associated with future SA/DP. CONCLUSIONS: The number of SA/DP net days per person increased, especially SA/DP days due to mental diagnoses.

Work stress and loss of years lived without chronic disease: an 18-year follow-up of 1.5 million employees in Denmark.

We aimed to examine the association between exposure to work stress and chronic disease incidence and loss of chronic disease-free life years in the Danish workforce. The study population included 1,592,491 employees, aged 30-59 in 2000 and without prevalent chronic diseases. We assessed work stress as the combination of job strain and effort-reward imbalance using job exposure matrices. We used Cox regressions to estimate risk of incident hospital-diagnoses or death of chronic diseases (i.e., type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure, and dementia) during 18 years of follow-up and calculated corresponding chronic disease-free life expectancy from age 30 to age 75. Individuals working in occupations with high prevalence of work stress had a higher risk of incident chronic disease compared to those in occupations with low prevalence of work stress (women: HR 1.04 (95% CI 1.02-1.05), men: HR 1.12 (95% CI 1.11-1.14)). The corresponding loss in chronic disease-free life expectancy was 0.25 (95% CI - 0.10 to 0.60) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.56-1.11) years in women and men, respectively. Additional adjustment for health behaviours attenuated these associations among men. We conclude that men working in high-stress occupations have a small loss of years lived without chronic disease compared to men working in low-stress occupations. This finding appeared to be partially attributable to harmful health behaviours. In women, high work stress indicated a very small and statistically non-significant loss of years lived without chronic disease.

Psychosocial Working Conditions and Subsequent Sickness Absence-Effects of Pain and Common Mental Disorders in a Population-Based Swedish Twin Sample.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate pain and/or common mental disorders (CMDs) in the associations between psychosocial working conditions and sickness absence (SA) while controlling familial confounding. METHODS: Prospective Prospective twin cohort study included survey data for pain and CMD, register data for SA and psychosocial working conditions. The follow-up from 2005 to 2016 of 28,916 twin individuals for first incident SA spell measured as the main International Classification of Diseases version 10 (ICD-10) diagnosis groups (F00-F99, I00-I99, and M00-M99), or the duration. We used regression models to obtain odds ratio (OR), incidence rate ratio (IRR), or relative risk ratio (RRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The covariate adjusted models of 9156 SA spells indicated almost no statistically significant associations between psychosocial working conditions and SA. CONCLUSIONS: Psychosocial working conditions were not associated with SA while familial confounding could not be ruled out.

Trajectory analyses in insurance medicine studies: Examples and key methodological aspects and pitfalls.

BACKGROUND: Trajectory analyses are being increasingly used in efforts to increase understanding about the heterogeneity in the development of different longitudinal outcomes such as sickness absence, use of medication, income, or other time varying outcomes. However, several methodological and interpretational challenges are related to using trajectory analyses. This methodological study aimed to compare results using two different types of software to identify trajectories and to discuss methodological aspects related to them and the interpretation of the results. METHODS: Group-based trajectory models (GBTM) and latent class growth models (LCGM) were fitted, using SAS and Mplus, respectively. The data for the examples were derived from a representative sample of Spanish workers in Catalonia, covered by the social security system (n = 166,192). Repeatedly measured sickness absence spells per trimester (n = 96,453) were from the Catalan Institute of Medical Evaluations. The analyses were stratified by sex and two birth cohorts (1949-1969 and 1970-1990). RESULTS: Neither of the software were superior to the other. Four groups were the optimal number of groups in both software, however, we detected differences in the starting values and shapes of the trajectories between the two software used, which allow for different conclusions when they are applied. We cover questions related to model fit, selecting the optimal number of trajectory groups, investigating covariates, how to interpret the results, and what are the key pitfalls and strengths of using these person-oriented methods. CONCLUSIONS: Future studies could address further methodological aspects around these statistical techniques, to facilitate epidemiological and other research dealing with longitudinal study designs.

Effects of age on psychosocial working conditions and future labour market marginalisation: a cohort study of 56,867 Swedish twins.

PURPOSE: Previous studies have reported an elevated risk of sickness absence (SA) and disability pension (DP) due to adverse psychosocial working conditions, yet the influence of age and familial factors on the associations have not been examined. We aimed to investigate associations between psychosocial working conditions and labour market marginalisation (LMM) in terms of unemployment, SA and DP adjusting for familial confounding and possible differences in these associations with different age groups and different unemployment and sick leave days. METHODS: All twins living in Sweden in 2001, aged 16-64 years and not on old-age pension or DP were included (n = 56,867). The twins were followed from 2002 to 2016 regarding unemployment, SA and DP. Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed for the whole sample, and for discordant twin pairs, in five age groups. RESULTS: Each one-unit increase in job demands and job control was associated with a lower risk of unemployment, SA and DP in all age groups. Moreover, each one-unit increase in social support was associated with an increased risk of 1-30 days unemployment in individuals older than 45 years and SA and DP. Social support decreased the risk of unemployment longer than 365 days in age groups 16-25 and 36-45 years. In the discordant twin pair analyses, the estimates attenuated towards statistical non-significance. CONCLUSION: Even though familial factors seem to influence the associations between psychosocial working conditions and LMM, improving psychosocial working conditions by for example promoting high job control and social support at workplace may reduce the risk of future short- and long-term LMM in all age groups.

Associations between combinations of job demands and job control among 6,16,818 people aged 55-64 in paid work with their labour market status 11 years later: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Given current discussions about extending working lives, more knowledge is needed on working conditions associated with labour market status in older age. OBJECTIVE: To explore associations between combinations of job demands and job control among workers aged 55-64 years and their labour market status 11 years later. METHODS: A population-based prospective cohort study using nationwide register data. The 616,818 individuals in Sweden aged 55-64 who in 2001 were in paid work were categorised using a job exposure matrix based on tertiles (reference = medium control/medium demands). Participants were followed up in 2012 regarding their main labour market status (paid work, old-age pension, no income/social assistance, sickness absence/disability pension, emigrated, dead; reference = old-age pension) using multinomial logistic regression for odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The fully adjusted analyses included adjustment for sociodemographic factors and unemployment or sickness absence/disability pension for more than half the year in 2001. RESULTS: Those in occupations with low job control at baseline were less likely to be in paid work at follow-up (OR low demands/low control 0.74, CI 0.71-0.78; high demands/low control 0.81, CI 0.75-0.87). Those in occupations with baseline high demands were less likely to have no income/social assistance at follow-up (OR high demands/low control 0.71, CI 0.52-0.96; high demands/high control 0.59, CI 0.47-0.75). CONCLUSION: Job demands and control when aged 55-64 were associated with labour market status 11 years later: high control was associated with greater chance of being in paid work, and high demands were associated with lower risk of no income/social assistance.

Associations of sickness absence and disability pension due to mental and somatic diagnoses when aged 60-64 with paid work after the standard retirement age; a prospective population-based cohort study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of people working beyond age 65 is increasing. We aimed to explore whether sickness absence (SA) and disability pension (DP) due to mental, somatic, or both diagnoses when aged 60-64 were associated with being in paid work when aged 66-71. METHODS: This prospective population-based cohort study included all 98,551 individuals who in 2010 turned 65 years, lived in Sweden, and were in paid work at some point when aged 60-64. Data from three nationwide registers were used with 2010 as baseline, with SA or/and DP as the exposure variables (2005-2009) and paid work as the outcome variable (2011-2016). Logistic regression was conducted to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between exposures and outcome, controlling for sociodemographic factors. The analyses were also stratified by sex. RESULTS: Nearly half were in paid work during follow-up. Those with SA due to mental diagnoses had lower likelihood of being in paid work among both sexes (women OR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.69-0.84; men 0.74; 0.65-0.84), while this association was smaller for SA due to somatic diagnoses (women 0.87; 0.84-0.91; men 0.92; 0.89-0.96). SA due to both mental and somatic diagnoses was associated with a lower likelihood of paid work for men (0.77; 0.65-0.91), but not women (0.98; 0.88-1.09). Regardless of diagnosis group and sex, DP had the strongest association with not being in paid work (women mental DP 0.39; 0.34-0.45; women somatic DP 0.38; 0.35-0.41; women mental and somatic DP 0.28; 0.15-0.56; men mental DP 0.36; 0.29-0.43; men somatic DP 0.35; 0.32-0.38; men mental and somatic DP 0.22; 0.10-0.51). Combined SA and/or DP demonstrated ORs in-between the diagnosis groups of SA and DP alone (e.g., mental SA and/or DP women and men combined 0.61; 0.57-0.65). CONCLUSIONS: SA and DP were negatively associated with being in paid work after the standard retirement age of 65. The association was especially strong for DP, irrespective of diagnosis group. Moreover, compared to somatic diagnoses, SA due to mental diagnoses had a stronger association with not being in paid work. More knowledge is needed on how mental SA impedes extending working life.

Emotional demands at work and risk of long-term sickness absence in 1·5 million employees in Denmark: a prospective cohort study on effect modifiers.

BACKGROUND: High emotional demands at work can affect employees' health and there is a need to understand whether such an association might be modified by other working conditions. We aimed to examine emotional demands at work as a risk factor for long-term sickness absence and analyse whether influence, possibilities for development, role conflicts, and physical demands at work might modify this risk. METHODS: We did a nationwide, population-based, prospective cohort study in Denmark and included employed individuals who were residing in Denmark in 2000, aged 30-59 years, who had complete data on age, sex, and migration background, with information on emotional demands and possible effect modifiers from job exposure matrices, and covariates and outcome (sickness absence) from population registers. Individuals with long-term sickness absence (≥6 weeks of consecutive sickness absence) between Jan 1, 1998, and Dec 31, 2000, and self-employed individuals were excluded. We assessed long-term sickness absence during a 10-year period from Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2010. Using Cox regression, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs and tested interaction as departure from additivity, estimating relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). Multivariable adjusted models included sex, age, cohabitation, migration background, and income. FINDINGS: 1 521 352 employed individuals were included and contributed data between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2010. During 11 919 021 person-years (mean follow-up 7·8 years), we identified 480 685 new cases of long-term sickness absence. High emotional demands were associated with increased risk of long-term sickness absence compared with low emotional demands, after adjusting for age, sex, cohabitation, migration background, income, and the four possible effect modifiers (adjusted HR 1·55 [95% CI 1·53-1·56]). The association between high emotional demands and risk of long-term sickness absence was stronger in a synergistic way when individuals were also exposed to low possibilities for development (RERI 0·35 [95% CI 0·22-0·47]; 28·9 additional cases per 1000 person-years) and high role conflicts (0·13 [0·11-0·15]; 22·0 additional cases per 1000 person-years). No synergy was observed for influence and physical demands at work. INTERPRETATION: People in occupations with high emotional demands were at increased risk of long-term sickness absence. Our findings on synergistic interactions suggest that, in emotionally demanding occupations, increasing possibilities for development and reducing work-related role conflicts might reduce long-term sickness absence. Further interventional studies are needed to confirm or refute this hypothesis. FUNDING: Danish Work Environment Research Fund, NordForsk.

Predicting the duration of sickness absence due to knee osteoarthritis: a prognostic model developed in a population-based cohort in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Predicting the duration of sickness absence (SA) among sickness absent patients is a task many sickness certifying physicians as well as social insurance officers struggle with. Our aim was to develop a prediction model for prognosticating the duration of SA due to knee osteoarthritis. METHODS: A population-based prospective study of SA spells was conducted using comprehensive microdata linked from five Swedish nationwide registers. All 12,098 new SA spells > 14 days due to knee osteoarthritis in 1/1 2010 through 30/6 2012 were included for individuals 18-64 years. The data was split into a development dataset (70 %, nspells =8468) and a validation data set (nspells =3690) for internal validation. Piecewise-constant hazards regression was performed to prognosticate the duration of SA (overall duration and duration > 90, >180, or > 365 days). Possible predictors were selected based on the log-likelihood loss when excluding them from the model. RESULTS: Of all SA spells, 53 % were > 90 days and 3 % >365 days. Factors included in the final model were age, sex, geographical region, extent of sickness absence, previous sickness absence, history of specialized outpatient healthcare and/or inpatient healthcare, employment status, and educational level. The model was well calibrated. Overall, discrimination was poor (c = 0.53, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.52-0.54). For predicting SA > 90 days, discrimination as measured by AUC was 0.63 (95 % CI 0.61-0.65), for > 180 days, 0.69 (95 % CI 0.65-0.71), and for SA > 365 days, AUC was 0.75 (95 % CI 0.72-0.78). CONCLUSION: It was possible to predict patients at risk of long-term SA (> 180 days) with acceptable precision. However, the prediction of duration of SA spells due to knee osteoarthritis has room for improvement.

Sickness absence among privately employed white-collar workers: A total population study in Sweden.

Background: Knowledge about sickness absence (SA) and disability pension (DP) among privately employed white-collar workers is very limited. Aims: This study aimed to explore SA and DP among privately employed white-collar women and men using different measures of SA to investigate differences by branch of industry, and to analyse the association between sociodemographic factors and SA. Methods: This was a population-based study of all 1,283,516 (47% women) privately employed white-collar workers in Sweden in 2012, using register data linked at the individual level. Several different measures of SA and DP were used. Logistic regression was used to investigate associations of sociodemographic factors with SA. Results: More women than men had SA (10.9% women vs. 4.5% men) and DP (1.8% women vs. 0.6% men). While women had a higher risk of SA than men and had more SA days per employed person, they did not have more SA days per person with SA than men. The risk of SA was higher for women (odds ratio (OR)=2.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.51-2.58)), older individuals (OR age 18-24 years=0.58 (95% CI 0.56-0.60); age 55-64 years OR=1.43 (95% CI 1.40-1.46) compared to age 45-54 years), living in medium-sized towns (OR=1.05 (95% CI 1.03-1.06)) or small towns/rural areas (OR=1.13 (95% CI 1.11-1.15)), with shorter education than college/university (OR compulsory only=1.64 (95% CI 1.59-1.69); OR high school=1.38 (95% CI 1.36-1.40)), born outside the EU25 (OR=1.23 (95% CI 1.20-1.27)) and singles with children at home (OR=1.33 (95% CI 1.30-1.36)). Conclusions: SA and DP among privately employed white-collar workers were lower than in the general population. SA prevalence, length and risk varied by branch of industry, sex and other sociodemographic factors, however, depending on the SA measure used.